Increasing volatility of reconstructed Morava River warm-season flow, Czech Republic

Torbenson, Max Carl Arne; Brázdil, Rudolf; Stagge, J.H.; Esper, Jan; Büntgen, Ulf; Vizina, A.; Hanel, M.; Rakovec, O.; Fischer, Milan; Urban, Otmar; Treml, V.; Reinig, F.; del Castillo, E. M.; Rybníček, Michal; Kolář, Tomáš; Trnka, Miroslav

doi:https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101534

Number of the records: 1

Increasing volatility of reconstructed Morava River warm-season flow, Czech Republic

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SYSNO ASEP	0578927
Document Type	J - Journal Article
R&D Document Type	Journal Article
Subsidiary J	Článek ve WOS
Title	Increasing volatility of reconstructed Morava River warm-season flow, Czech Republic
Author(s)	Torbenson, Max Carl Arne (UEK-B)_{ORCID, SAI, RID} Brázdil, Rudolf (UEK-B)_{RID, SAI, ORCID} Stagge, J.H. (US) Esper, Jan (UEK-B)_{SAI, ORCID, RID} Büntgen, Ulf (UEK-B)_{RID, ORCID, SAI} Vizina, A. (CZ) Hanel, M. (CZ) Rakovec, O. (DE) Fischer, Milan (UEK-B)_{RID, ORCID, SAI} Urban, Otmar (UEK-B)_{RID, ORCID, SAI} Treml, V. (CZ) Reinig, F. (DE) del Castillo, E. M. (DE) Rybníček, Michal (UEK-B)_{RID, ORCID, SAI} Kolář, Tomáš (UEK-B)_{RID, ORCID, SAI} Trnka, Miroslav (UEK-B)_{RID, ORCID, SAI}
Article number	101534
Source Title	Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies. - : Elsevier Roč. 50, DEC (2023)
Number of pages	16 s.
Language	eng - English
Country	NL - Netherlands
Keywords	climate-change impact ; baseflow separation ; model parameterization ; straznicke pomoravi ; floodplain ; streamflow ; drought ; precipitation ; documentary ; indexes ; Baseflow ; Morava ; Extremes ; Tree rings ; Reconstruction
Subject RIV	DA - Hydrology ; Limnology
OECD category	Hydrology
R&D Projects	EF16_019/0000797 GA MŠMT - Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports (MEYS)
	GA23-08049S GA ČR - Czech Science Foundation (CSF)
Research Infrastructure	CzeCOS IV - 90248 - Ústav výzkumu globální změny AV ČR, v. v. i.
Method of publishing	Open access
Institutional support	UEK-B - RVO:86652079
UT WOS	001088759200001
EID SCOPUS	85172005775
DOI	10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101534
Annotation	Study region: The Morava River basin, Czech Republic, Danube Basin, Central Europe.Study focus: Hydrological summer extremes represent a prominent natural hazard in Central Europe. River low flows constrain transport and water supply for agriculture, industry and society, and flood events are known to cause material damage and human loss. However, under-standing changes in the frequency and magnitude of hydrological extremes is associated with great uncertainty due to the limited number of gauge observations. Here, we compile a tree-ring network to reconstruct the July-September baseflow variability of the Morava River from 1745 to 2018 CE. An ensemble of reconstructions was produced to assess the impact of calibration period length and trend on the long-term mean of reconstruction estimates. The final estimates represent the first baseflow reconstruction based on tree rings from the European continent. Simulated flows and historical documentation provide quantitative and qualitative validation of estimates prior to the 20th century. New hydrological insights for theregion: The reconstructions indicate an increased variability of warm-season flow during the past 100 years, with the most extreme high and low flows occurring after the start of instrumental observations. When analyzing the entire reconstruction, the negative trend in baseflow displayed by gauges across the basin after 1960 is not unprecedented. We conjecture that even lower flows could likely occur in the future considering that preinstrumental trends were not primarily driven by rising temperature (and the evaporative demand) in contrast to the recent trends.
Workplace	Global Change Research Institute
Contact	Nikola Šviková, svikova.n@czechglobe.cz, Tel.: 511 192 268
Year of Publishing	2024
Electronic address	https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581823002215?via%3Dihub

Number of the records: 1