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Anticipating the DART Impact: Orbit Estimation of Dimorphos Using a Simplified Model
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SYSNO ASEP 0563026 Document Type J - Journal Article R&D Document Type Journal Article Subsidiary J Článek ve WOS Title Anticipating the DART Impact: Orbit Estimation of Dimorphos Using a Simplified Model Author(s) Naidu, S.P. (US)
Chesley, S.R. (US)
Farnocchia, D. (US)
Moskovitz, N. (US)
Pravec, Petr (ASU-R) RID, ORCID
Scheirich, Peter (ASU-R) RID, ORCID
Thomas, C. (US)
Rivkin, A. S. (US)Article number 234 Source Title The Planetary Science Journal. - : American Astronomical Society
Roč. 3, č. 10 (2022)Number of pages 8 s. Publication form Online - E Language eng - English Country US - United States Keywords near-Earth objects ; orbit determination ; asteroid satellites Subject RIV BN - Astronomy, Celestial Mechanics, Astrophysics OECD category Astronomy (including astrophysics,space science) R&D Projects GA20-04431S GA ČR - Czech Science Foundation (CSF) Method of publishing Open access Institutional support ASU-R - RVO:67985815 UT WOS 000912976000001 EID SCOPUS 85142250988 DOI 10.3847/PSJ/ac91c0 Annotation We used the times of occultations and eclipses between the components of the 65803 Didymos binary system observed in its light curves from 2003 to 2021 to estimate the orbital parameters of Dimorphos relative to Didymos. We employed a weighted least-squares approach and a modified Keplerian orbit model in order to accommodate the effects from nongravitational forces such as binary YORP that could cause a linear change in mean motion over time. We estimate that the period of the mutual orbit at the epoch 2022 September 26.0 TDB, the day of the DART impact, is 11.921 487 ± 0.000028 hr (1σ) and that the mean motion of the orbit is changing at a rate of (5.0 ± 1.0) × 10-18 rad s-2 (1σ). The formal 3σ uncertainty in orbital phase of Dimorphos during the planned Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission is 5.°4. Observations from 2022 July to September, a few months to days prior to the DART impact, should provide modest improvements to the orbital phase uncertainty and reduce it to about 4.°2. These results, generated using a relatively simple model, are consistent with those generated using the more sophisticated model of Scheirich & Pravec, which demonstrates the reliability of our method and adds confidence to these mission-critical results. Workplace Astronomical Institute Contact Radka Svašková, bibl@asu.cas.cz, Tel.: 323 620 326 Year of Publishing 2023 Electronic address https://hdl.handle.net/11104/0335115
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