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Clustering Weather Situations with Respect to Prediction of Solar Irradiance by Multiple NWP Models
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SYSNO ASEP 0434056 Document Type C - Proceedings Paper (int. conf.) R&D Document Type Conference Paper Title Clustering Weather Situations with Respect to Prediction of Solar Irradiance by Multiple NWP Models Author(s) Krč, Pavel (UIVT-O) SAI, RID, ORCID
Eben, Kryštof (UIVT-O) SAI, RID, ORCID
Pelikán, Emil (UIVT-O) SAI, RIDSource Title ECAI 2014. - Amsterdam : IOS Press, 2014 / Schaub T. ; Friedrich G. ; O’Sullivan B. - ISSN 0922-6389 - ISBN 978-1-61499-418-3 Pages s. 1207-1208 Number of pages 2 s. Publication form Print - P Action ECAI 2014. European Conference on Artificial Intelligence /21./ Event date 18.08.2014-22.08.2014 VEvent location Prague Country CZ - Czech Republic Event type EUR Language eng - English Country NL - Netherlands Keywords regression tree ; numerical weather prediction ; global solar radiation Subject RIV IN - Informatics, Computer Science Institutional support UIVT-O - RVO:67985807 UT WOS 000349444700265 EID SCOPUS 84923205469 DOI 10.3233/978-1-61499-419-0-1207 Annotation With the photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) forming a growing portion of European power sources, there is a strong demand for a reliable prediction of solar power. Such predictions are mostly provided by physical or statistical models, both of which rely on accurate forecast of solar irradiance. For the short-to-medium-term forecast horizon (hours to days), irradiance forecast is provided mostly by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. However, in spite of a recent effort to improve irradiance prediction within current NWP models, its quality is still not satisfactory and it is responsible for a majority of uncertainty in photovoltaic power forecasting. A promising method of improving NWP solar irradiance prediction is multi-model approach. This paper presents preliminary results from a data mining approach to combining irradiance forecasts from multiple NWP models. Workplace Institute of Computer Science Contact Tereza Šírová, sirova@cs.cas.cz, Tel.: 266 053 800 Year of Publishing 2015
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