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Methodology to assess the changing risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress under climate change
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SYSNO ASEP 0546888 Document Type J - Journal Article R&D Document Type Journal Article Subsidiary J Článek ve WOS Title Methodology to assess the changing risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress under climate change Author(s) Stella, T. (DE)
Webber, H. (DE)
Olesen, Jorgen Eivind (UEK-B) RID, SAI, ORCID
Ruane, A. C. (US)
Fronzek, S. (FI)
Bregaglio, S. (IT)
Mamidanna, S. (DE)
Bindi, M. (IT)
Collins, B. (AU)
Faye, B. (FR)
Ferrise, R. (IT)
Fodor, N. (DE)
Gabaldon-Leal, C. (ES)
Jabloun, M. (GB)
Kersebaum, Kurt Christian (UEK-B) ORCID, SAI, RID
Lizaso, J. (ES)
Lorite, I. J. (ES)
Manceau, L. (FR)
Martre, P. (FR)
Nendel, C. (DE)
Rodriguez, A. (ES)
Ruiz-Ramos, M. (ES)
Semenov, M. A. (GB)
Stratonovitch, P. (GB)
Ewert, F. (DE)Number of authors 25 Article number 104033 Source Title Environmental Research Letters. - : Institute of Physics Publishing - ISSN 1748-9326
Roč. 16, č. 10 (2021)Number of pages 17 s. Language eng - English Country GB - United Kingdom Keywords change impacts ; compound dry ; crop yields ; variability ; environment ; irrigation ; biases ; climate risk assessment ; climate change impact ; wheat ; maize ; crop model ; relative distribution Subject RIV DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OECD category Climatic research R&D Projects EF16_019/0000797 GA MŠMT - Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports (MEYS) Research Infrastructure CzeCOS III - 90123 - Ústav výzkumu globální změny AV ČR, v. v. i. Method of publishing Open access Institutional support UEK-B - RVO:86652079 UT WOS 000704140500001 EID SCOPUS 85117701182 DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2196 Annotation While the understanding of average impacts of climate change on crop yields is improving, few assessments have quantified expected impacts on yield distributions and the risk of yield failures. Here we present the relative distribution as a method to assess how the risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress (measured in terms of return period between yields falling 15% below previous five year Olympic average yield) responds to changes of the underlying yield distributions under climate change. Relative distributions are used to capture differences in the entire yield distribution between baseline and climate change scenarios, and to further decompose them into changes in the location and shape of the distribution. The methodology is applied here for the case of rainfed wheat and grain maize across Europe using an ensemble of crop models under three climate change scenarios with simulations conducted at 25 km resolution. Under climate change, maize generally displayed shorter return periods of yield failures (with changes under RCP 4.5 between0.3 and 0 years compared to the baseline scenario) associated with a shift of the yield distribution towards lower values and changes in shape of the distribution that further reduced the frequency of high yields. This response was prominent in the areas characterized in the baseline scenario by high yields and relatively long return periods of failure. Conversely, for wheat, yield failures were projected to become less frequent under future scenarios (with changes in the return period of0.1 to +0.4 years under RCP 4.5) and were associated with a shift of the distribution towards higher values and a change in shape increasing the frequency of extreme yields at both ends. Our study offers an approach to quantify the changes in yield distributions that drive crop yield failures. Actual risk assessments additionally require models that capture the variety of drivers determining crop yield variability and scenario climate input data that samples the range of probable climate variation. Workplace Global Change Research Institute Contact Nikola Šviková, svikova.n@czechglobe.cz, Tel.: 511 192 268 Year of Publishing 2022 Electronic address https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2196
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