Bayesian Estimation of Source Term of Atmospheric Radiation Release with Interval Prior

0460818 - ÚTIA 2017 RIV FR eng C - Conference Paper (international conference)
Tichý, Ondřej - Šmídl, Václav - Hofman, Radek
Bayesian Estimation of Source Term of Atmospheric Radiation Release with Interval Prior.
Proceedings of the 8th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software (iEMSs). Toulouse: iEMSs, 2016, s. 357-364. ISBN 978-88-9035-745-9.
[The 8th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software (iEMSs). Toulouse (FR), 10.07.2016-14.07.2016]
R&D Projects: GA MŠMT(CZ) 7F14287
Keywords : Source term estimation * Variational Bayes inference * Gamma dose rate measurement * CVX optimization toolbox * Covariance matrix model
Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research
http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/AS/tichy-0460818.pdf

Detection of release of an atmospheric pollutant is a problem of interest in environmental sciences. We are concerned with estimation of unknown source term of the release. Formally, the problem is formulated as a linear model where measurements are explained using source-receptor-sensitivity matrix obtained from atmospheric transport model and source term vector which has to be estimated. Specifically, we estimate the release of radioactivity from measurements of gamma dose rate (GDR). The problem of isolation of activity of individual nuclides is poorly conditioned. We propose a probabilistic model with the prior information on intervals of nuclide ratios. The model parameters are estimated using the Variational Bayes method. The proposed algorithm is tested on simulated scenario with 16 nuclides and compared with state-of-the-art optimization approaches.
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0261530