The 2022 Election in the United States: Reliability of a Linear Regression Model

0581709 - ÚI 2024 RIV CZ eng C - Conference Paper (international conference)
Kalina, Jan - Vidnerová, Petra - Večeř, M.
The 2022 Election in the United States: Reliability of a Linear Regression Model.
RELIK 2023. Conference Proceedings. Prague: Prague University of Economics and Business, 2023 - (Langhamrová, J.; Vrabcová, J.), s. 123-132. ISBN 978-80-245-2499-3.
[RELIK 2023: Reproduction of Human Capital - mutual links and connections /16./. Praha (CZ), 23.11.2023-24.11.2023]
Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GA21-19311S
Institutional support: RVO:67985807
Keywords : elections results * electoral demography * linear regression * reliability * variability
OECD category: Statistics and probability
https://relik.vse.cz/2023/download/pdf/689-Vidnerova-Petra-paper.pdf

In this paper, the 2022 United States election to the House of Representatives is analyzed by means of a linear regression model. After the election process is explained, the popular vote is modeled as a response of 8 predictors (demographic characteristics) on the state-wide level. The main focus is paid to verifying the reliability of two obtained regression models, namely the full model with all predictors and the most relevant submodel found by hypothesis testing (with 4 relevant predictors). Individual topics related to assessing reliability that are used in this study include confidence intervals for predictions, multicollinearity, and also outlier detection. While the predictions in the submodel that includes only relevant predictors are very similar to those in the full model, it turns out that the submodel has better reliability properties compared to the full model, especially in terms of narrower confidence intervals for the values of the popular vote.
Permanent Link: https://hdl.handle.net/11104/0349891