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Quantitative expression of uncertainty in nowcasting heavy convective precipitation in Central Europe by extrapolation methods
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SYSNO ASEP 0432951 Document Type A - Abstract R&D Document Type The record was not marked in the RIV R&D Document Type Není vybrán druh dokumentu Title Quantitative expression of uncertainty in nowcasting heavy convective precipitation in Central Europe by extrapolation methods Author(s) Mejsnar, Jan (UFA-U) RID
Sokol, Zbyněk (UFA-U) RID, ORCID
Pešice, Petr (UFA-U) RID, ORCIDSource Title ERAD 2014 - Short Abstracts. - Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling : Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, 2014 Number of pages 1 s. Action ERAD 2014 - 8th European Conference on Radar in Meteorology and Hydrology Event date 01.09.2014-05.09.2014 VEvent location Garmisch-Partenkirchen Country DE - Germany Event type WRD Subject RIV DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Institutional support UFA-U - RVO:68378289 Annotation Methods extrapolating observed radar reflectivity along Lagrangian trajectories are frequently used for nowcasting of precipitation. The forecast errors of these methods have two basic components. The first one stems from inaccurate estimates of the motion fields used for calculating trajectories. The second one follows from the assumtion that is frequently applied and that consists in an assumption that observed radar reflectivity does not change in another way that by the advection. Some research of these aspects has already been done but it concentrated to another reagions than to Central Europe. Because scale characteristics of convective storms differ for various parts of the world we think that such study can bring original results. The aim of this study is to quantify these two errors and then quantify predictability and uncertainy in forecasting convective precipitation. We will analyze heavy convective storms which occurred in the Czech Republic in 2009 and 2010 by means of several extrapolation methods. The main attention will be devoted to analyses of forecasted and observed accumulated precipitation, in contrast to usually analyzed forecasted reflectivity, over 60 and 30 minutes. Workplace Institute of Atmospheric Physics Contact Kateřina Adamovičová, adamovicova@ufa.cas.cz, Tel.: 272 016 012 ; Kateřina Potužníková, kaca@ufa.cas.cz, Tel.: 272 016 019 Year of Publishing 2015
Number of the records: 1