How robust are future projections of forest landscape dynamics? Insights from a systematic comparison of four forest landscape models

0533687 - BÚ 2021 RIV GB eng J - Journal Article
Petter, G. - Mairotta, P. - Albrich, K. - Bebi, P. - Brůna, Josef - Bugmann, H. - Haffenden, A. - Scheller, R. M. - Schmatz, D. R. - Seidl, R. - Speich, M. - Vacchiano, G. - Lischke, H.
How robust are future projections of forest landscape dynamics? Insights from a systematic comparison of four forest landscape models.
Environmental Modelling & Software. Roč. 134, December (2020), s. 1-13, č. článku 104844. ISSN 1364-8152. E-ISSN 1873-6726
R&D Projects: GA MŠMT LD15158
Institutional support: RVO:67985939
Keywords : forest landscape models * model comparision * future projections
OECD category: Forestry
Impact factor: 5.288, year: 2020
Method of publishing: Open access
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104844

The first systematic comparison of forest landscape models shows that variance of model projections under several future scenarios is substantial and model differences explain most of the simulated variance. We advocate a more rigorous and systematic model evaluation and calibration, and a broader use of ensemble projections to quantify uncertainties in future landscape dynamics.
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0315141