Risk occurrences of damaging frosts during the growing season of vegetables in the Elbe River lowland, the Czech Republic

0521372 - ÚVGZ 2020 RIV NL eng J - Journal Article
Potopová, V. - Zahradníček, Pavel - Türkott, L. - Štěpánek, Petr - Soukup, J.
Risk occurrences of damaging frosts during the growing season of vegetables in the Elbe River lowland, the Czech Republic.
Natural Hazards. Roč. 71, č. 1 (2014), s. 1-19. ISSN 0921-030X. E-ISSN 1573-0840
R&D Projects: GA MŠMT(CZ) EE2.3.20.0248
Institutional support: RVO:67179843
Keywords : minimum temperature * air-temperature * united-states * time-series * trends * region * interpolation * precipitation * 20th-century * maximum * Elbe River lowland * Late spring frost * Early fall frost * Frost-free period * Vegetable crops
OECD category: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences
Impact factor: 1.719, year: 2014
Method of publishing: Limited access
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11069-013-0894-5

This study has, for the first time, analysed in detail the risk occurrences of the last spring frost, first fall frost and the length of the frost-free period during the growing season of vegetable crops at a high horizontal resolution of 10 km in the Elbe River lowland in the Czech Republic. The daily minimum air temperature from 116 grid points throughout the studied area for the period 1961-2011 was used. The daily values of minimum air temperature ranges of 0 to1.1 A degrees C,1.2 to2.2 A degrees C and below2.2 A degrees C were considered to constitute mild, moderate and severe frost intensities, respectively. Firstly, the spatiotemporal variability of the date of the last spring frost, the date of the first fall frost and the length of the frost-free period in the Elbe River lowland is provided. Secondly, the estimation of the probability of a later date in the spring and an earlier date in the fall for various severe frost events and the length of the frost-free period is determined. Third, the changes in the timing of the last and first frosts of the three severities, as well as the length of the frost-free period, are evaluated. From 1961 to 2011, the Elbe River lowland has experienced a decrease in the number of frost days, while the length of the frost-free period between the last spring frost and the first fall frost has increased. The temporal evolution of the frost-free period anomalies displays two distinct periods: a shortening of the frost-free period in the 1960s and an intensified lengthening of the frost-free period since the 1980s. Whereas the latest spring frost has ended on an earlier date across the Elbe River lowland, the first frost date in the fall has generally been delayed to a later date. The dates of the last spring frost have advanced by0.21 days per year on average. The fall dates are delayed up to 0.18 days per year, whereas the frost-free period is lengthening by up to 0.39 days per year on average. However, regional frost series suggests that the frost-free period exhibits a large amount of inter-annual variability. In terms of the growth of field vegetables, a late spring frost remains a risk factor, but the degree of risk has decreased. There is a 25 % chance of the occurrence of dangerous spring frosts during the planting of field vegetables after 3rd May, but after 15th May, the risk is only 10 %.
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0305999