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Generalized Additive Models for Nowcasting Cloud Shading
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SYSNO ASEP 0424720 Document Type J - Journal Article R&D Document Type Journal Article Subsidiary J Článek ve WOS Title Generalized Additive Models for Nowcasting Cloud Shading Author(s) Brabec, Marek (UIVT-O) RID, SAI, ORCID
Paulescu, M. (RO)
Badescu, V. (RO)Source Title Solar Energy. - : Elsevier - ISSN 0038-092X
Roč. 101, March (2014), s. 272-282Number of pages 11 s. Language eng - English Country US - United States Keywords sunshine number ; nowcasting ; generalized additive model ; Markov chain Subject RIV BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research R&D Projects LD12009 GA MŠMT - Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports (MEYS) Institutional support UIVT-O - RVO:67985807 UT WOS 000331921800028 EID SCOPUS 84892971882 DOI 10.1016/j.solener.2014.01.005 Annotation The response time of a photovoltaic plant is very short and its output power follows the abrupt change in solar irradiance level due to alternate shadow by clouds. Presence of shading may be quantified by a binary variable: sunshine number (SSN). Various logistic Markovian models of SSN dynamics are introduced and discussed in this paper, going from simple to more complicated model structures. Radiometric data measured at 15 s lag during 2010 in Timisoara (Romania) are used to illustrate their real-world performance. The models are useful for short term forecasting related e.g. to photovoltaic conversion control, including more complicated events like ramp-like switches between overcast and clear regimes. Importantly, presented models are not black-box forecasting tools. They contain physically interpretable structure which is advantageous both in developing, checking and improvement of the model itself, but also as a tool for characterizing various systematic properties of cloud shading. Workplace Institute of Computer Science Contact Tereza Šírová, sirova@cs.cas.cz, Tel.: 266 053 800 Year of Publishing 2015
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