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Quantitative expression of uncertainty in nowcasting heavy convective precipitation in central Europe by extrapolation methods
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SYSNO ASEP 0381657 Document Type C - Proceedings Paper (int. conf.) R&D Document Type The record was not marked in the RIV Title Quantitative expression of uncertainty in nowcasting heavy convective precipitation in central Europe by extrapolation methods Author(s) Mejsnar, Jan (UFA-U) RID
Sokol, Zbyněk (UFA-U) RID, ORCID
Pešice, Petr (UFA-U) RID, ORCIDSource Title ERAD 2012 - 7th European Conference on Radar in Meteorology and Hydrology. - Toulouse : Météo France, 2012 Number of pages 5 s. Action ERAD 2012 - European Conference on Radar in Meteorology and Hydrology /7./ Event date 24.06.2012-29.06.2012 VEvent location Toulouse Country FR - France Event type WRD Language eng - English Country FR - France Keywords precipitation nowcasting ; Lagrangien extrapolation ; uncertainty in precipitation Subject RIV DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology R&D Projects ME09033 GA MŠMT - Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports (MEYS) Institutional support UFA-U - RVO:68378289 Annotation Methods extrapolating observed radar reflectivity along Lagrangian trajectories are frequently used for nowcasting of precipitation. The forecast errors of these methods have two basic components. The first one stems from inaccurate estimates of the motion fields used for calculating trajectories. The second one follows from the assumtion that observed radar reflectivity does not change in another way that by the advection. Some research of these aspects has already been done but it concentrated to another reagions than to Central Europe. The aim of this study is to quantify these two errors and then quantify predictability and uncertainy in forecasting convective precipitation. We will analyze heavy convective storms which occurred in the Czech Republic in 2009 and 2010 by means of several extrapolation methods. The main attention will be devoted to analyses of forecasted and observed accumulated precipitation, in contrast to usually analyzed forecasted reflectivity, over 60 and 30 minutes. We will concentrate on error analyses of precipitation forecasts for „typical“ Czech small catchments, the size of which is from 100 to 200 km2. Workplace Institute of Atmospheric Physics Contact Kateřina Adamovičová, adamovicova@ufa.cas.cz, Tel.: 272 016 012 ; Kateřina Potužníková, kaca@ufa.cas.cz, Tel.: 272 016 019 Year of Publishing 2013
Number of the records: 1