Potential alien ranges of European plants will shrink in the future, but less so for already naturalized than for not yet naturalized species

0547332 - BÚ 2022 RIV GB eng J - Journal Article
Pouteau, R. - Biurrun, I. - Brunel, C. - Chytrý, M. - Dawson, W. - Essl, F. - Fristoe, T. S. - Haveman, R. - Hobohm, C. - Jansen, F. - Kreft, H. - Lenoir, J. - Lenzner, B. - Meyer, C. - Moeslund, J. E. - Pergl, Jan - Pyšek, Petr - Svenning, J.-C. - Thuiller, W. - Weigelt, P. - Wohlgemuth, T. - Yang, Q. - van Kleunen, M.
Potential alien ranges of European plants will shrink in the future, but less so for already naturalized than for not yet naturalized species.
Diversity and Distributions. Roč. 27, č. 11 (2021), s. 2063-2076. ISSN 1366-9516. E-ISSN 1472-4642
R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GX19-28807X
Institutional support: RVO:67985939
Keywords : distributional range shift * effect of global changes * land use change * macroecology * miration * non-analogue climate * alien plant species * biological invasions * climate change
OECD category: Ecology
Impact factor: 5.717, year: 2021
Method of publishing: Open access
https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13378

By investigating future changes in the potential alien range of vascular plant species endemic to Europe that are either naturalized or not yet naturalized outside of Europe, we showed a great potential for more worldwide naturalizations of European plants. The centres of naturalization risk for naturalized and non-naturalized plants largely overlapped, and their location did not change much under projected future climates. Nevertheless, naturalized plants had their potential range shifting poleward over larger distances, whereas the non-naturalized ones had their potential elevational ranges shifting further upslope under the most severe climate change scenarios. As a result, climate and land use changes are predicted to shrink the potential alien range of European plants, but less so for already naturalized than for non-naturalized species.
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0325751