Synchronization and causality across time scales in El Niño Southern Oscillation

0499543 - ÚI 2019 RIV GB eng J - Journal Article
Jajcay, Nikola - Kravtsov, S. - Sugihara, G. - Tsonis, A.A. - Paluš, Milan
Synchronization and causality across time scales in El Niño Southern Oscillation.
n p j Climate and Atmospheric Science. Roč. 1, 12 November (2018), č. článku 33. ISSN 2397-3722. E-ISSN 2397-3722
R&D Projects: GA MŠMT LH14001
Institutional support: RVO:67985807
Keywords : casual discovery * El Niño/Southern Oscillation * climate * climate models * synchronization
OECD category: Climatic research

Statistical inference of causal interactions and synchronization between dynamical phenomena evolving on different temporal scales is of vital importance for better understanding and prediction of natural complex systems such as the Earth’s climate. This article introduces and applies information theory diagnostics to phase and amplitude time series of different oscillatory components of observed data that characterizes El Niño/Southern Oscillation. A suite of significant interactions between processes operating on different time scales is detected and shown to be important for emergence of extreme events. The mechanisms of these nonlinear interactions are further studied in conceptual low-order and state-of-the-art dynamical, as well as statistical climate models. Observed and simulated interactions exhibit substantial discrepancies, whose understanding may be the key to an improved prediction of ENSO. Moreover, the statistical framework applied here is suitable for inference of cross-scale interactions in human brain dynamics and other complex systems.
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0291739