Learning about rare disasters: implications for consumption and asset prices

0441140 - NHÚ 2016 RIV GB eng J - Journal Article
Gillman, Max - Kejak, Michal - Pakoš, Michal
Learning about rare disasters: implications for consumption and asset prices.
Review of Finance. Roč. 19, č. 3 (2015), s. 1053-1104. ISSN 1572-3097. E-ISSN 1573-692X
Institutional support: RVO:67985998
Keywords : rare diasasters * asset prices * consumption
Subject RIV: AH - Economics
Impact factor: 2.080, year: 2015

Rietz (1988) and Barro (2006) subject consumption and dividends to rare disasters in the growth rate. We extend their framework and subject consumption and dividends to rare disasters in the growth persistence. We model growth persistence by means of two hidden types of economic slowdowns: recessions and lost decades. We estimate the model based on the postwar US data using maximum likelihood and find that it can simultaneously match a wide array of dynamic pricing phenomena in the equity and bond markets. The key intuition for our results stems from the inability to discriminate between the short and the long recessions ex ante.
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0244213