Statistical Models for Disaggregation and Reaggregation of Natural Gas Consumption Data

0436216 - ÚI 2015 RIV GB eng J - Journal Article
Brabec, Marek - Konár, Ondřej - Malý, Marek - Kasanický, Ivan - Pelikán, Emil
Statistical Models for Disaggregation and Reaggregation of Natural Gas Consumption Data.
Journal of Applied Statistics. Roč. 42, č. 5 (2015), s. 921-937. ISSN 0266-4763. E-ISSN 1360-0532
Institutional support: RVO:67985807
Keywords : natural gas consumption * semiparametric model * standardized load profiles * aggregation * disaggregation * 62P30
Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research
Impact factor: 0.419, year: 2015

In this paper, we present a unified framework for natural gas consumption modeling and forecasting. This consists of models of GAM class and their nonlinear extension, tailored for easy estimation, aggregation and treatment of the delayed relationship between temperature and consumption. Since the consumption data for households and small commercial customers are routinely available in many countries only as long-term sum meter readings, their disaggregation and possibly reaggregation to different time intervals is necessary for a variety of purposes. We show some examples of specific models based on the presented framework and then we demonstrate their use in practice, especially for the disaggregation and reaggregation tasks.
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0240061