Event-adjusted evaluation of weather and climate extremes

0426187 - ÚFA 2015 RIV DE eng J - Journal Article
Müller, Miloslav - Kašpar, Marek
Event-adjusted evaluation of weather and climate extremes.
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. Roč. 14, č. 2 (2014), s. 473-483. ISSN 1561-8633. E-ISSN 1684-9981
R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP209/11/1990
Institutional support: RVO:68378289
Keywords : weather extreme * climate extreme * extremity evaluation * return period * generalized extreme value distribution * region of influence
Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology
Impact factor: 1.735, year: 2014
http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/14/473/2014/nhess-14-473-2014.pdf

After an overview of existing methods, we present a novel method of “event-adjusted” evaluation of extremeness of weather and climate events. It is based on optimization of both the considered area and the time duration for every event. The method consists of three steps: (i) estimation of return periods of a representative variable at individual sites, performed separately for various time windows; (ii) spatial interpolation of the point return period data; and (iii) averaging of return period values from individual pixels and optimization of the considered area and the time window. The optimization is enabled by multiplication of the common logarithm of the geometric mean of return periods by the radius of a circle area equivalent to the considered area. The maximum product is referred to as the Weather Extremity Index (WEI). The method is demonstrated by two precipitation events that affected the Czech Republic in May and in August 2010.
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0231922