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Generalized Additive Models for Nowcasting Cloud Shading

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    0424720 - ÚI 2015 RIV US eng J - Journal Article
    Brabec, Marek - Paulescu, M. - Badescu, V.
    Generalized Additive Models for Nowcasting Cloud Shading.
    Solar Energy. Roč. 101, March (2014), s. 272-282. ISSN 0038-092X. E-ISSN 1471-1257
    R&D Projects: GA MŠMT LD12009
    Grant - others:European Cooperation in Science and Technology(XE) COST ES1002
    Institutional support: RVO:67985807
    Keywords : sunshine number * nowcasting * generalized additive model * Markov chain
    Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research
    Impact factor: 3.469, year: 2014

    The response time of a photovoltaic plant is very short and its output power follows the abrupt change in solar irradiance level due to alternate shadow by clouds. Presence of shading may be quantified by a binary variable: sunshine number (SSN). Various logistic Markovian models of SSN dynamics are introduced and discussed in this paper, going from simple to more complicated model structures. Radiometric data measured at 15 s lag during 2010 in Timisoara (Romania) are used to illustrate their real-world performance. The models are useful for short term forecasting related e.g. to photovoltaic conversion control, including more complicated events like ramp-like switches between overcast and clear regimes. Importantly, presented models are not black-box forecasting tools. They contain physically interpretable structure which is advantageous both in developing, checking and improvement of the model itself, but also as a tool for characterizing various systematic properties of cloud shading.
    Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0230751

     
     
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