Comparison of regional and at-site approaches to modelling probabilities of heavy precipitation

0368553 - ÚFA 2012 RIV GB eng J - Journal Article
Kyselý, Jan - Gaál, Ladislav - Picek, J.
Comparison of regional and at-site approaches to modelling probabilities of heavy precipitation.
International Journal of Climatology. Roč. 31, č. 10 (2011), s. 1457-1472. ISSN 0899-8418. E-ISSN 1097-0088
R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KJB300420801; GA ČR GAP209/10/2265; GA ČR GAP209/10/2045
Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517
Keywords : extreme value analysis * regional frequency analysis * precipitation extremes * region-of-influence method * central Europe
Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology
Impact factor: 2.906, year: 2011
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.2182/abstract

Several approaches to estimating distributions of precipitation extremes are compared by means of simulation experiments, and their applications into observed data in the Czech Republic are evaluated. Regional frequency models, which take into account data in fixed or flexible ‘regions’ when fitting a distribution at any site, lead to estimates with much smaller errors compared to a single-site analysis, and efficiently reduce random and climatologically irrelevant variations in the estimates of the model parameters and high quantiles. The region-of-influence methodology with a built-in regional homogeneity test is recognized as a useful approach, with the model based on proximity of sites outperforming the Hosking-Wallis regional frequency analysis.
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0202862