Climate change scenarios of precipitation extremes in Central Europe from ENSEMBLES regional climate models

0368524 - ÚFA 2012 RIV AT eng J - Journal Article
Kyselý, Jan - Gaál, Ladislav - Beranová, Romana - Plavcová, Eva
Climate change scenarios of precipitation extremes in Central Europe from ENSEMBLES regional climate models.
Theoretical and Applied Climatology. Roč. 104, 3-4 (2011), s. 529-542. ISSN 0177-798X. E-ISSN 1434-4483
R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP209/10/2265
EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 505539 - ENSEMBLES
Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517
Keywords : precipitation extremes * regional climate models * ENSEMBLES * climate change * region-of-influence method
Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology
Impact factor: 1.942, year: 2011
http://www.springerlink.com/content/95wj1140307nu5k7/fulltext.pdf

Future scenarios of precipitation extremes over Central Europe are examined in an ensemble of 12 regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the European project ENSEMBLES. We apply the region-of-influence method as a pooling scheme when estimating distributions of extremes. Most RCMs simulate increases in high quantiles of precipitation amounts for the late-21st century (2070-99) climate in both winter and summer. Although a qualitative agreement of the models concerning the projected changes of precipitation extremes is found in both winter and summer, the uncertainties in climate change scenarios remain large.
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0202847