Future climate and changes in flow patterns in Czech headwater catchments

0366746 - ÚVGZ 2012 RIV DE eng J - Journal Article
Benčoková, A. - Krám, P. - Hruška, Jakub
Future climate and changes in flow patterns in Czech headwater catchments.
Climate Research. Roč. 49, č. 1 (2011), s. 1-15. ISSN 0936-577X. E-ISSN 1616-1572
R&D Projects: GA MŠMT(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073
Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520
Keywords : climate change impact * flow pattern * regional climate scenarios * Headwater catchments * hydrological modelling * Broo90
Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology
Impact factor: 1.994, year: 2011

The aim of this study was to estimate the impacts of anticipated global climate change on runoff and evapotranspiration in small-forested catchments. The investigated Lysina and Pluhův Bor catchments are situated in the Slavkov Forest in western Czech Republic. To forecast hydrological patterns for the period 2071–2100, outputs from 2 general circulation models, HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3, were downscaled using 3 regional climate models (RCM; RCAO, CHRM, HIRHAM) under the A2 and B2 emission scenarios (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios). Corrected RCM daily outputs were used in combination with the hydrological model Brook90. Annual runoff is projected to decline by 10 to 30%, and impacts on the distribution of monthly flow are projected to be significant, with summer–autumn decreases of 30 to 95%, and winter increases of up to ~40% compared to mean discharge for the period 1967–1990. Mean daily flows are estimated to decrease by ~70% from August to November. These changes would have serious ecological ­consequences since streams could regularly dry up for short periods.
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0201622