Prediction vs. reality: Can a PVA model predict population persistence 13 years later?

0356797 - ÚVGZ 2011 RIV NL eng J - Journal Article
Schödelbauerová, Iva - Tremblay, R. L. - Kindlmann, Pavel
Prediction vs. reality: Can a PVA model predict population persistence 13 years later?
Biodiversity and Conservation. Roč. 19, č. 3 (2010), s. 637-650. ISSN 0960-3115. E-ISSN 1572-9710
R&D Projects: GA MŠMT LC06073
Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520
Keywords : Lepanthes rubripetala * Matrix models * Orchids * Transition matrix
Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour
Impact factor: 2.146, year: 2010

The challenge of conservation biology is to make models that predict population dynamics and have a high probability of accurately tracking population. Here we tested whether the transition model is accurate enough to predict population persistence and size 13 years down and whether after 13 years populations had achieved a stable stage distribution. We modeled 6 small populations of an epiphytic orchid. We re-censused the populations 13 years after the first study and compared the structure of the populations to predictions based on the earlier census data. Effective population growth rates were similar to those expected except for one where the population went extinct. The prediction slightly overestimated the actual population growth rates of some populations. Elasticity analysis revealed that the adult stage is critical in the life cycle. The observed stage distributions of the populations were not stable at the beginning of the survey and neither were they after 13 years.
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0195227