Estimating extremes in climate change simulations using the peaks-over-threshold method with a non-stationary threshold

0350579 - ÚFA 2011 RIV NL eng J - Journal Article
Kyselý, Jan - Picek, J. - Beranová, Romana
Estimating extremes in climate change simulations using the peaks-over-threshold method with a non-stationary threshold.
Global and Planetary Change. Roč. 72, 1-2 (2010), s. 55-68. ISSN 0921-8181. E-ISSN 1872-6364
R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/06/1535; GA ČR GAP209/10/2045
Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) LC06024
Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517
Keywords : climate change * extreme value analysis * global climate models * peaks-over-threshold method * peaks-over-quantile regression * quantile regression * Poisson process * extreme temperatures
Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology
Impact factor: 3.351, year: 2010

The paper presents a methodology for estimating high quantiles of distributions of daily temperature in a non-stationary context, based on peaks-over-threshold analysis with a time-dependent threshold expressed in terms of regression quantiles. The extreme value models are applied to estimate 20-yr return values of maximum daily temperature over Europe in transient global climate model (GCM) simulations for the 21st century. The method also allows splitting the projected warming of extremely high quantiles into two parts that reflect change in the location and scale of the distribution of extremes, respectively.
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0190546