Estimating the impact of climate change on the occurrence of selected pests in the Central European region

0349905 - ÚFA 2011 RIV DE eng J - Journal Article
Kocmánková, E. - Trnka, M. - Eitzinger, J. - Formayer, H. - Dubrovský, Martin - Semerádová, Daniela - Žalud, Z. - Juroch, J. - Možný, M.
Estimating the impact of climate change on the occurrence of selected pests in the Central European region.
Climate Research. Roč. 44, č. 1 (2010), s. 95-105. ISSN 0936-577X. E-ISSN 1616-1572
R&D Projects: GA ČR GA521/08/1682; GA AV ČR IAA300420806
Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517
Keywords : Climate change * Pests * Geographical distribution * Altitude
Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology
Impact factor: 2.110, year: 2010

This study demonstrates the methodology and benefits of climate-driven modelling tools using the European corn borer (ECB) and Colorado potato beetle (CPB). CLIMEX models of the potential geographical distributions of each species were used to study the effects of climate change on ECB and CPB by estimating changes in population dynamics and/or infestation pressure during the first half of the 21st century. Simulations were conducted using 3 global circulation models and scaled by low and high values of global temperature change. The results predict an increase in newly established areas and in the number of pest generations per year. The ratio of arable land affected by a particular number of generations is also expected to increase. Another significant result is shown for higher altitudes currently unoccupied by pests. We recorded rapid generation increase (from 0 to 2), which supports the hypothesis that these areas are more affected by increased temperatures.
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0190031