Natural Gas

0348314 - ÚI 2011 RIV HR eng M - Monography Chapter
Brabec, Marek - Malý, Marek - Pelikán, Emil - Konár, Ondřej
Statistical Model of Segment-Specific Relationship Between Natural Gas Consumption and Temperature in Daily and Hourly Resolution.
Natural Gas. Rijeka: Sciyo, 2010 - (Potočnik, P.), s. 393-416. ISBN 978-953-307-112-1
R&D Projects: GA AV ČR 1ET400300513
Grant - others:GA AV ČR(CZ) M100300904
Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504
Source of funding: I
Keywords : natural gas consumption * semiparametric modeling * statistical modeling * temperature response
Subject RIV: JE - Non-nuclear Energetics, Energy Consumption ; Use

We describe a statistical model which was developed from first principles and from empirical behavior of real data to characterize the relationship between the consumption of natural gas and temperature in several segments of a typical gas utility company's customer pool. Specifically, we will deal with household and small+medium (HOU+SMC) size commercial customers. The model is suitable for disaggregation of various observed functionals of the observed consumption process into smaller pieces, e.g. disaggregation of sums across both individual customers and time into original components. This amounts to (semiparametric statistical) estimation of the individual pieces and/or subsequent synthesis into other functionals of interest. The model is built as a GAM (generalized additive model) with a nonlinear temperature response and it has quite rich dynamic component. We formulate the model first in generality and then we illustrate its behavior on real data from a large scale project.
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0188875