Estimating QPF uncertainty by ensemble skill for local flash flood producing rainfalls

0340869 - ÚFA 2010 RIV CH eng C - Conference Paper (international conference)
Zacharov, Petr, jr. - Řezáčová, Daniela
Estimating QPF uncertainty by ensemble skill for local flash flood producing rainfalls.
UrbanRain09. Rainfall in the urban context: forecasting, risk and climate change. Zurich: ETH Zurich, 2009 - (Molnar, P.; Burlando, P.; Einfalt, T.), s. 230-234. ISBN 978-3-909386-27-7.
[International workshop on precipitationin urban areas /8./. St. Moritz (CH), 10.12.2009-13.12.2009]
R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/07/0905; GA MŠMT OC 112
Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517
Keywords : QPF * forecast uncertainty * ensemble forecast * Fractions Skill Score * ensemble spread * ensemble skill
Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology

Forecast uncertainty is an inherent part of high-resolution quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) and it is particularly pronounced when predicting heavy convective precipitation. Ensemble prediction is a usefull mean to assess the QPF uncertainty by employing ensemble spread that characterizes differences between the control forecast and forecasts provided by each ensemble member. In this study, we used gauge adjusted radar-based rainfalls in the QPF verification and we applied Fractions Skill Score (FSS) in the calculation of the ensemble skill and ensemble spread.
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0184024