0104023 - UFA-U 20040012 RIV AT eng J - Journal Article
Trnka, M. - Dubrovský, Martin - Semerádová, Daniela - Žalud, Z.
Projections of uncertainties in climate change scenarios into expected winter wheat yields.
[Projekce nejistot v scénářích změn klimatu do očekávaných výnosů ozimé pšenice.]
Theoretical and Applied Climatology. Roč. 77, - (2004), s. 229-249. ISSN 0177-798X. E-ISSN 1434-4483
R&D Projects: GA ČR GA521/02/0827
Grant - others:Mendel University of Agriculture and Forestry Brno(CZ) J 08/98:432100001
Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3042911
Keywords : climate change scenarios * wheat yields
Subject RIV: GC - Agronomy
Impact factor: 0.964, year: 2004

The crop model CERES-wheat in combination with the stochastic weather generator were used to quantify the effect of uncertainties in saelected climate change scenarios on the yields of winter wheat, which is the most important European cereal crop. Seven experimental sites with the high quality experimental data were selected in order to evaluate the crop model and to carry out the climate change impact analysis. The analysis was based on the multi-year crop model simulations run with the daily weather series prepared by the stochastic weather generator. Seven global circulation models (GCMs) were used to derive the climate change scenarios. In addition, seven GCM-based scenarios were averaged in order to derive the average scenario (AVG). The scenarios were constructed for three time periods (2025, 2050 and 2100) and two SRES emission scenarios (A2 and B1).

Projekce nejistot v scénářích změn klimatu do očekávaných výnosů ozimé pšenice
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0011311