Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels

0583513 - ÚFA 2025 RIV US eng J - Journal Article
Chen, K. - de Schrijver, E. - Sivaraj, S. - Sera, F. - Scovronick, N. - Jiang, L. - Roye, D. - Lavigne, E. - Kyselý, Jan - Urban, Aleš - Schneider, A. - Huber, V. - Madureira, J. - Mistry, M.N. - Cvijanovic, I. - Gasparrini, A. - Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M.
Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels.
Nature Communications. Roč. 15, č. 1 (2024), č. článku 1796. E-ISSN 2041-1723
R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA22-24920S
Institutional support: RVO:68378289
Keywords : environmental impact * risk factors * climate change * projections * heat * cold
OECD category: Climatic research
Impact factor: 16.6, year: 2022
Method of publishing: Open access
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-45901-z

Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively: among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%–0.4% at 1.5–3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.
Permanent Link: https://hdl.handle.net/11104/0351507


Research data: Supplementary Information