Joint effect of heat and air pollution on mortality in 620 cities of 36 countries

0577066 - ÚFA 2024 RIV GB eng J - Journal Article
Stafoggia, M. - Michelozzi, P. - Schneider, A. - Armstrong, B. - Scortichini, M. - Rai, M. - Achilleos, M. - Alahmad, B. - Analitis, A. - Åström, C. - Bell, M.L. - Calleja, N. - Krage Carlsen, H. - Carrasco, G. - Cauchi, J. P. - Dszs Coelho, M. - Correa, P.M. - Diaz, M. H. - Entezari, A. - Forsberg, B. - Garland, R.M. - Leon Guo, Y. - Guo, Y. - Hashizume, M. - Holobaca, I.H. - Íñiguez, C. - Jaakkola, J.J.K. - Kan, H. - Katsouyanni, K. - Kim, H. - Kyselý, Jan - Lavigne, E. - Lee, W. - Li, S. - Maasikmets, M. - Madureira, J. - Mayvaneh, F. - Fook Sheng Ng, C. - Nunes, B. - Orru, H. - Ortega, N. V. - Osorio, S. - Palomares, A. D. L. - Pan, S.-Ch. - Pascal, M. - Ragettli, M.S. - Rao, S. - Raz, R. - Roye, D. - Ryti, N. - Saldiva, P. H. N. - Samoli, E. - Schwartz, J. - Scovronick, N. - Sera, F. - Tobias, A. - Tong, S. - DLC Valencia, C. - Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M. - Urban, Aleš - Gasparrini, A. - Breitner, S. - de' Donato, F.
Joint effect of heat and air pollution on mortality in 620 cities of 36 countries.
Environment International. Roč. 181, Nov. (2023), č. článku 108258. ISSN 0160-4120. E-ISSN 1873-6750
R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA22-24920S
Institutional support: RVO:68378289
Keywords : Air pollution * Air temperature * Effect modification * Epidemiology * Mortality
OECD category: Climatic research
Impact factor: 11.8, year: 2022
Method of publishing: Open access
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412023005317

Background: The epidemiological evidence on the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on mortality is still inconsistent. Objectives: To investigate the interaction between heat and ambient air pollution on daily mortality in a large dataset of 620 cities from 36 countries. Methods: We used daily data on all-cause mortality, air temperature, particulate matter ≤ 10 μm (PM10), PM ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) from 620 cities in 36 countries in the period 1995–2020. We restricted the analysis to the six consecutive warmest months in each city. City-specific data were analysed with over-dispersed Poisson regression models, followed by a multilevel random-effects meta-analysis. The joint association between air temperature and air pollutants was modelled with product terms between non-linear functions for air temperature and linear functions for air pollutants. Results: We analyzed 22,630,598 deaths. An increase in mean temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile of city-specific distributions was associated with an average 8.9 % (95 % confidence interval: 7.1 %, 10.7 %) mortality increment, ranging between 5.3 % (3.8 %, 6.9 %) and 12.8 % (8.7 %, 17.0 %), when daily PM10 was equal to 10 or 90 μg/m3, respectively. Corresponding estimates when daily O3 concentrations were 40 or 160 μg/m3 were 2.9 % (1.1 %, 4.7 %) and 12.5 % (6.9 %, 18.5 %), respectively. Similarly, a 10 μg/m3 increment in PM10 was associated with a 0.54 % (0.10 %, 0.98 %) and 1.21 % (0.69 %, 1.72 %) increase in mortality when daily air temperature was set to the 1st and 99th city-specific percentiles, respectively. Corresponding mortality estimate for O3 across these temperature percentiles were 0.00 % (-0.44 %, 0.44 %) and 0.53 % (0.38 %, 0.68 %). Similar effect modification results, although slightly weaker, were found for PM2.5 and NO2. Conclusions: Suggestive evidence of effect modification between air temperature and air pollutants on mortality during the warm period was found in a global dataset of 620 cities.
Permanent Link: https://hdl.handle.net/11104/0346334