No evidence for persistent natural plague reservoirs in historical and modern Europe

0569995 - ÚVGZ 2023 RIV US eng J - Journal Article
Stenseth, N. C. - Tao, Y. - Zhang, C. - Bramanti, B. - Büntgen, Ulf - Cong, X. - Cui, Y. - Zhou, H. - Dawson, L. A. - Mooney, S. J. - Li, D. - Fell, H. G. - Cohn, S. - Sebbane, F. - Slavin, P. - Liang, W. - Tong, H. - Yang, R. - Xu, L.
No evidence for persistent natural plague reservoirs in historical and modern Europe.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. Roč. 119, č. 51 (2022), č. článku e2209816119. ISSN 0027-8424. E-ISSN 1091-6490
R&D Projects: GA MŠMT(CZ) EF16_019/0000797
Institutional support: RVO:86652079
Keywords : environmental conditions * Europe * natural plague reservoirs * rodent diversity * Yersinia pestis
OECD category: Infectious Diseases
Impact factor: 11.1, year: 2022
Method of publishing: Open access
https://www.pnas.org/doi/epdf/10.1073/pnas.2209816119

Caused by Yersinia pestis, plague ravaged the world through three known pandemics: the First or the Justinianic (6th–8th century), the Second (beginning with the Black Death during c.1338–1353 and lasting until the 19th century), and the Third (which became global in 1894). It is debatable whether Y. pestis persisted in European wildlife reservoirs or was repeatedly introduced from outside Europe (as covered by European Union and the British Isles). Here, we analyze environmental data (soil characteristics and climate) from active Chinese plague reservoirs to assess whether such environmental conditions in Europe had ever supported “natural plague reservoirs”. We have used new statistical methods which are validated through predicting the presence of modern plague reservoirs in the western United States. We find no support for persistent natural plague reservoirs in either historical or modern Europe. Two factors make Europe unfavorable for long-term plague reservoirs: 1) Soil texture and biochemistry and 2) low rodent diversity. By comparing rodent communities in Europe with those in China and the United States, we conclude that a lack of suitable host species might be the main reason for the absence of plague reservoirs in Europe today. These findings support the hypothesis that long-term plague reservoirs did not exist in Europe and therefore question the importance of wildlife rodent species as the primary plague hosts in Europe.
Permanent Link: https://hdl.handle.net/11104/0341327