Citizen science helps predictions of climate change impact on flowering phenology: A study on Anemone nemorosa

0562210 - BÚ 2023 RIV NL eng J - Journal Article
Puchałka, R. - Klisz, M. - Koniakin, S. - Czortek, P. - Dylewski, L. - Paź-Dyderska, S. - Vítková, Michaela - Sádlo, Jiří - Rašomavičius, V. - Čarni, A. - De Sanctis, M. - Dyderski, M. K.
Citizen science helps predictions of climate change impact on flowering phenology: A study on Anemone nemorosa.
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. Roč. 325, 15 October (2022), č. článku 109133. ISSN 0168-1923. E-ISSN 1873-2240
Institutional support: RVO:67985939
Keywords : bioclimatic variables * flowering offset * flowering onset * forest understory * i-ecology * wood anemone
OECD category: Plant sciences, botany
Impact factor: 6.2, year: 2022
Method of publishing: Open access
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109133

We assessed citizen science databases usefulness in large-scale phenological research on temperate forest understory species, using a common and widely distributed in Europe: Anemone nemorosa. We analyzed 9804 photos from these databases. We predicted flowering dates for the present and future climate according to Shared Socioeconomic Pathways averaged over four global circulation models for 2040–60 and 2060–80 across A. nemorosa natural range. The predicted changes in the phenology of flowering will not significantly change the duration of flowering but will accelerate onset of this phenophase by about one month. Predicted changes will differ spatially, being the largest in Eastern Europe. Our study showed that citizen science might provide a valuable dataset that allows for developing reliable models of plant phenology.
Permanent Link: https://hdl.handle.net/11104/0339532