Wind Damage and Temperature Effect on Tree Mortality Caused by Ips typographus L.: Phase Transition Model

0558878 - ÚVGZ 2023 RIV CH eng J - Journal Article
Soukhovolsky, V. - Kovalev, A. - Tarasova, O. - Modlinger, R. - Křenová, Zdeňka - Mezei, P. - Škvarenina, J. - Rožnovský, J. - Korolyova, N. - Majdák, A. - Jakuš, R.
Wind Damage and Temperature Effect on Tree Mortality Caused by Ips typographus L.: Phase Transition Model.
Forests. Roč. 13, č. 2 (2022), č. článku 180. E-ISSN 1999-4907
R&D Projects: GA MŠMT(CZ) LM2018123
Institutional support: RVO:86652079
Keywords : spruce bark beetle * norway spruce * forest management * col.-scolytidae * climate-change * national-park * dynamics * susceptibility * disturbances * coleoptera * tree mortality * bark beetle * Czech Republic * Slovakia * autoregressive distributed lag model * long-term * short-term
OECD category: Forestry
Impact factor: 2.9, year: 2022
Method of publishing: Open access
https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/13/2/180

The aim of this study was to develop methods for constructing a simple model describing tree mortality caused by Ips typographus L. using a minimum number of variables. We developed a model for areas spanning natural mountain forests in the Tatra National Park (Slovakia) and the Sumava National Park (Czech Republic), and in managed Czech forests located in four areas varying in environmental conditions. The model describes the time series of tree mortality dynamics caused by I.typographus using two submodels: a long-term dynamics submodel, and a short-term dynamics autoregressive distributed lag(ADL) model incorporating a two year delay and temperature variable averaged over the April-May period. The quality of fit for our models (R-2 value) ranged from 0.87 to 0.91. The model was formulated to capture the average monthly temperature effect, a key weather factor. We found that for high-elevation stands located at least 1000 ma.s.l., forest damage was predominantly influenced by May temperatures. For lower-elevation managed forests with warmer climates, the weather effect was insignificant.
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0332379