Observed and expected changes in wildfire-conducive weather and fire events in peri-urban zones and key nature reserves of the Czech Republic

0540320 - ÚFA 2022 RIV DE eng J - Journal Article
Trnka, M. - Balek, J. - Možný, M. - Cienciala, E. - Čermák, P. - Semerádová, D. - Jurečka, F. - Hlavinka, P. - Štěpánek, P. - Farda, A. - Skalák, P. - Beranová, J. - Chuchma, F. - Zahradníček, P. - Janouš, D. - Žalud, Z. - Dubrovský, Martin - Kindlmann, P. - Křenová, Z. - Fischer, M. - Hruška, J. - Brázdil, R.
Observed and expected changes in wildfire-conducive weather and fire events in peri-urban zones and key nature reserves of the Czech Republic.
Climate Research. Roč. 82, Nov 5 (2020), s. 33-54. ISSN 0936-577X. E-ISSN 1616-1572
Institutional support: RVO:68378289
Keywords : Wildfire * Fire weather index * Climate change * Regional climate model * Global circulation model * Nature reserve * Peri-urban zone * Czech Republic
OECD category: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences
Impact factor: 1.972, year: 2020
Method of publishing: Open access
https://www.int-res.com/articles/cr_oa/c082p033.pdf

Recent drought and a surge in days with weather conditions conducive to wildfire occurrence during 2015-2019 reminded the Czech Republic that it is not immune to this type of natural hazard. Although Central Europe has not been at the center of such events, observed climate data and climate projections suggest a tendency toward more years with wet and mild winters and dry and hot summers. To fill the existing knowledge gap, we used an ensemble of 9 fuel aridity metrics, including 3 dedicated fire weather indices, and evaluated their level of agreement with actual fire occurrence and their temporal trends. The analysis included peri-urban zones of the 36 largest cities and towns in the Czech Republic (home of 3.8 million inhabitants) and the 29 largest protected areas (covering 13.7% of the territory). Fire weather climatology, based on both the Fire Weather Index and the Forest Fire Danger Index, agreed well with the long-term frequency of fires both in peri-urban zones and within protected areas. Future projections based on regional and global model ensembles indicated a significant increase in fuel aridity and an increase in the area affected by fire-conducive conditions both around urban areas and within protected regions. In particular, the area affected by days with very high risk fire weather conditions is likely to increase significantly relative to the past 60 yr. However, the magnitude of the projected change depends to a large degree on the selected fire weather metric and whether RCM- or GCM-based scenarios are used.
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0318022