0509316 - ÚVGZ 2020 RIV US eng J - Journal Article
Trnka, Miroslav - Feng, S. - Semenov, M. A. - Olesen, J. E. - Kersebaum, K. C. - Rötter, R. P. - Semerádová, Daniela - Klem, Karel - Huang, W. - Ruiz-Ramos, M. - Hlavinka, Petr - Meitner, Jan - Balek, Jan - Havlík, P. - Büntgen, Ulf
Mitigation efforts will not fully alleviate the increase in water scarcity occurrence probability in wheat-producing areas.
Science Advances. Roč. 5, č. 9 (2019), č. článku eaau2406. ISSN 2375-2548. E-ISSN 2375-2548
R&D Projects: GA MŠMT(CZ) EF16_019/0000797
Research Infrastructure: CzeCOS II - 90061
Institutional support: RVO:86652079
Keywords : Food supply * Climate change mitigation * Food security * Future assessment * Future climate * Occurrence probability * Producing areas * Water scarcity * Global warming
OECD category: Agronomy, plant breeding and plant protection
Impact factor: 13.117, year: 2019 ; AIS: 5.675, rok: 2019
Method of publishing: Open access
Result website:
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/advances/5/9/eaau2406.full.pdf

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau2406

Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe water scarcity (SWS) events, which negatively affect rain-fed crops such as wheat, a key source of calories and protein for humans. Here, we develop a method to simultaneously quantify SWS over the world’s entire wheat-growing area and calculate the probabilities of multiple/sequential SWS events for baseline and future climates. Our projections show that, without climate change mitigation (representative concentration pathway 8.5), up to 60% of the current wheat-growing area will face simultaneous SWS events by the end of this century, compared to 15% today. Climate change stabilization in line with the Paris Agreement would substantially reduce the negative effects, but they would still double between 2041 and 2070 compared to current conditions. Future assessments of production shocks in food security should explicitly include the risk of severe, prolonged, and near-simultaneous droughts across key world wheat-producing areas.
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0300062