Spatial Compound Event Spells in Present and Future Climates -Weather Generator vs. Regional Climate Models

0493368 - ÚFA 2019 RIV DE eng A - Abstract
Dubrovský, Martin - Štěpánek, Petr - Lhotka, Ondřej - Mikšovský, Jiří
Spatial Compound Event Spells in Present and Future Climates -Weather Generator vs. Regional Climate Models.
EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts, Vol. 15. Berlín: European Meteorological Society, 2018.
[EMS Annual Meeting: European Conference for Applied Meteorology and Climatology 2018. 03.09.2018-07.09.2018, Budapest]
R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA16-04676S; GA ČR(CZ) GA18-15958S
Institutional support: RVO:68378289 ; RVO:67179843
Keywords : climate change impact studies * spatial weather generator SPAGETTA * regional climate models
OECD category: Climatic research; Climatic research (UEK-B)
https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EMS2018/EMS2018-782-1.pdf

Weather generators (WGs) are often used to produce input weather data for climate change impact studies.
While the single-site generators are commonly used in agriculture, the multi-site generators are preferred for
hydrological experiments. To justify the use of WG in the impact studies, WGs should be validated for their
ability to represent various features of statistical structure of the real-world weather data, especially the features
which may significantly affect outputs from the impact models. The validation indices may include characteristics
of (a) probability distribution functions of individual weather variables (mean, variability, quantiles, extremes),
(b) temporal structure (persistence, occurrence of spells of specific weather type), (c) spatial structure (only
for the spatial WGs), and (d) relationships between variables. Having been validated, the WG may be used to
produce arbitrarily long weather series representing the baseline climate for use in the impact studies. To produce weather series representing the future climate, the generators parameters are typically modified by climate change scenarios.
This contribution focuses on the results obtained by the parametric spatial weather generator SPAGETTA and
compares its performance with the results based on the ensemble of RCM simulations available from the CORDEX database. In the first part, the WG and RCMs are validated for their ability to reproduce spatial temperature and precipitation patterns focusing on compound temperature-precipitation event spells: spells of spatially extensive hot-dry, hot-wet, cold-dry and cold-wet weather.In the second part, the spells are analysed from both WG-based synthetic series (WG parameters are modified by RCM-based climate change scenarios) and RCM future climate simulations. The experiment is made within the frame of projects 16-04676S and 18-15958S sponsored by the Czech Science Foundation.
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0286742