Sub-daily temporal reconstruction of historical extreme precipitation events using NWP model simulations

0479099 - ÚFA 2018 DE eng A - Abstract
Bližňák, Vojtěch - Müller, Miloslav - Zacharov, Petr, jr. - Kašpar, Marek - Kvak, Róbert
Sub-daily temporal reconstruction of historical extreme precipitation events using NWP model simulations.
9th European Conference on Severe Storms (ECSS 2017). Amtsgericht München: European Severe Storms Laboratory e.V. (ESSL), 2017. ECSS2017-9.
[European Conference on Severe Storms (ECSS) /9./. 18.09.2017-22.09.2017]
Institutional support: RVO:68378289
Keywords : extreme precipitation events * numerical weather prediction model COSMO * radar measurements * verifications
Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology
http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/ECSS2017/ECSS2017-9.pdf

Extreme precipitation events (EPEs) belong to the most studied natural hazards because of their extra high impacts
on the human society. However, observational data with a high temporal and spatial resolution along with a suffi-
cient level of accuracy is available for the last several years only and is completely missing for historical EPEs. The
presented contribution will be aimed at the employment of high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP)
model simulations and daily rain gauge measurements to create a temporal reconstruction of historical EPEs,
which will enable us to evaluate the selected EPEs in terms of their sub-daily extremity. The selected EPEs will
be simulated by the non-hydrostatic NWP model COSMO with a spatial resolution of 2.8 km and temporal step of
10-minutes and will be merged with daily rain gauge measurements. In the first step, precipitation sums from daily
rain gauge measurement and model simulation in a corresponding grid point will be compared and obtained ratio
will be then applied on each 10-minute model forecast. Rain gauge daily data will be then interpolated into a regular
grid with the same resolution as the model simulation. Precipitation cores in both fields will be searched and
an optimal shift of the prognostic data in respect to the daily rain gauge measurements will be assessed to adjust
the NWP model forecasts. In the second step, measured daily totals will be divided into a sequence of 10-minute
intensities according to the course of simulated precipitation in the respective grid point. The procedure will result
into a set of 144 intervals per day represented by reconstructed 10-minute precipitation intensities at the gauge
stations. Finally, the intensities will be interpolated into a regular grid with respect to the distribution of simulated
precipitation intensities between stations.
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0275118