0464882 - ÚVGZ 2017 RIV DE eng J - Článek v odborném periodiku
Trnka, Miroslav - Balek, Jan - Štěpánek, Petr - Zahradníček, Pavel - Možný, M. - Eitzinger, Josef - Žalud, Zdeněk - Formayer, H. - Turňa, M. - Nejedlík, P. - Semerádová, Daniela - Hlavinka, Petr - Brázdil, Rudolf
Drought trends over part of Central Europe between 1961 and 2014.
Climate Research. Roč. 70, oct (2016), s. 143-160. ISSN 0936-577X. E-ISSN 1616-1572
Grant CEP: GA MŠMT(CZ) LO1415; GA ČR GA13-04291S
Výzkumná infrastruktura: CzeCOS II - 90061
Institucionální podpora: RVO:67179843
Klíčová slova: SPI * PDSI * SPEI * Z-index * ICDI * Drought climatology * Climate trends
Kód oboru RIV: EH - Ekologie - společenstva
Impakt faktor: 1.578, rok: 2016 ; AIS: 0.992, rok: 2016
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01420

An increase in drought frequency, duration and severity is expected for the Central
European region as a direct consequence of climate change. This will have profound effects on a
number of key sectors (e.g. agriculture, forestry, energy production and tourism) and also affect
water resources, biodiversity and the landscape as a whole. However, global circulation models
significantly differ in their projections for Central Europe with respect to the magnitude and timing
of these changes. Therefore, analysis of changes in drought characteristics during the last
54 yr in relation to prevailing climate trends might significantly enhance our understanding of
present and future drought risks. This study is based on a set of drought indices, including the
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), the Palmer Zindex
(Z-index) and the Standardized Precipitation−Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), in their most
advanced formulations. The time series of the drought indices were calculated for 411 climatological
stations across Austria (excluding the Alps), the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Up to 45% of
the evaluated stations (depending on the index) became significantly drier during the 1961−2014
period except for areas in the west and north of the studied region. In addition to identifying the
regions with the most pronounced drying trends, a drying trend consistency across the station network
of 3 independent national weather services was shown. The main driver behind this development
was an increase in the evaporative demand of the atmosphere, driven by higher temperatures
and global radiation with limited changes in precipitation totals. The observed drying
trends were most pronounced during the April−September period and in lower elevations. Conversely,
the majority of stations above 1000 m exhibited a significant wetting trend for both the
summer and winter (October−March) half-years.
Trvalý link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0263633