Changing regional weather−crop yield relationships across Europe between 1901 and 2012

0464840 - ÚVGZ 2017 RIV DE eng J - Journal Article
Trnka, Miroslav - Olesen, J. E. - Kersebaum, K. C. - Rötter, R. P. - Brázdil, Rudolf - Eitzinger, Josef - Jansen, S. - Skjelväg, A. O. - Peltonen-Sainio, P. - Hlavinka, Petr - Balek, J. - Eckersten, H. - Gobin, A. - Vučeti, V. - Dalla Marta, A. - Orlandini, S. - Alexandrov, V. - Semerádová, Daniela - Štěpánek, Petr - Svobodová, Eva - Rajdl, Kamil
Changing regional weather−crop yield relationships across Europe between 1901 and 2012.
Climate Research. Roč. 70, 2-3 (2016), s. 195-214. ISSN 0936-577X. E-ISSN 1616-1572
R&D Projects: GA MŠMT(CZ) LO1415; GA MŠMT(CZ) LD13030; GA MZe QJ1310123; GA ČR GA13-19831S
Research Infrastructure: CzeCOS II - 90061
Institutional support: RVO:86652079
Keywords : Climatic trend * Weather–crop yield relationship * Wheat * Barley * Yield trend * Drought * Europe
Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology
Impact factor: 1.578, year: 2016
Method of publishing: Open access
http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v70/n2-3/p195-214/

Europe is, after Asia, the second largest producer of wheat in the world, and provides
the largest share of barley. Wheat (and to a similar extent, barley) production in Europe increased
by more than 6-fold during the 20th century. During the first half of the 20th century, this was
driven by expanding the harvested area. This was followed, from the mid-20th century, by a massive
increase in productivity that in many regions has stalled since 2000. However, it remains
unclear what role climatic factors have played in these changes. Understanding the net impact of
climatic trends over the past century would also aid in our understanding of the potential impact
of future climate changes and in assessments of the potential for adaptation across Europe. In this
study, we compiled information from several sources on winter wheat and spring barley yields and
climatological data from 12 countries/regions covering the period from 1901−2012. The studied
area includes the majority of climatic regions in which wheat and barley are grown (from central
Italy to Finland). We hypothesized that changes in climatic conditions have led to measurable
shifts in climate−yield relationships over the past 112 yr, and that presently grown wheat and barley
show a more pronounced response to adverse weather conditions compared to crops from the
early 20th century. The results confirm that climate−yield relationships have changed significantly
over the period studied, and that in some regions, different predictors have had a greater effect on
yields in recent times (between 1991 and 2012) than in previous decades. It is likely that changes
in the climate−yield relationship at the local level might be more pronounced than those across
the relatively large regions used in this study, as the latter represents aggregations of yields from
various agroclimatic and pedoclimatic conditions that may show opposing trends.
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0263599