Projection of drought-inducing climate conditions in the Czech Republic according to Euro-CORDEX models

0464794 - ÚVGZ 2017 RIV DE eng J - Journal Article
Štěpánek, Petr - Zahradníček, Pavel - Farda, Aleš - Skalák, Petr - Trnka, Miroslav - Meitner, Jan - Rajdl, Kamil
Projection of drought-inducing climate conditions in the Czech Republic according to Euro-CORDEX models.
Climate Research. Roč. 70, 2-3 (2016), s. 179-193. ISSN 0936-577X. E-ISSN 1616-1572
R&D Projects: GA MŠMT(CZ) LO1415; GA MŠMT(CZ) LD14043; GA ČR(CZ) GA14-12262S; GA ČR GA13-19831S; GA ČR(CZ) GA16-16549S
Research Infrastructure: CzeCOS II - 90061
Institutional support: RVO:67179843
Keywords : Euro-CORDEX simulations * model bias correction * climate change * drought indices * Czech Republic
Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology
Impact factor: 1.578, year: 2016

The end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century in the Czech
Republic were characterized by frequent extreme water cycle fluctuations, i.e. the occurrence of
increased incidences of flood and drought events. Drought occurs irregularly in the Czech Republic
during periods with low precipitation amounts. The most noteworthy droughts with significant
impact, especially to agriculture, occurred in the years 2000, 2003, 2007, 2009, 2012, 2014 and
2015. A significant increase in frequency and length of drought periods was detected in future climate
projections based on the latest model outputs, such as from the Euro-CORDEX 0.11° resolutions
for the European area. For these model experiments, the following greenhouse gas emissions
scenarios were used: Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 (milder scenario) and
RCP8.5 (pessimistic scenario). Since the climate models suffer from potentially severe biases, it is
necessary to statistically correct their outputs. For this purpose, a suitable reference dataset was
prepared, based on quality-controlled, homogenized and gap-filled station time series. The correction
method applied was based on variable correction using individual percentiles. From the
corrected model outputs, selected extreme indexes with respect to drought analysis were calculated.
From the results, it follows that we can expect both an increase in air temperature and in
precipitation (with increased amounts per event), as well as an increase in other extremes with the
capability of inducing drought (number of tropical days, heat waves, etc.).
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0263570