Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

0455849 - ÚVGZ 2016 RIV GB eng J - Journal Article
Ewert, F. - Rötter, R. P. - Bindi, M. - Weber, H. - Trnka, Miroslav - Kersebaum, K. C. - Olesen, J. E. - van Ittersum, M. K. - Janssen, S. - Rivingtom, M. - Semenov, M. A. - Wallach, D. - Porter, J. R. - Stewart, D. - Vegahen, J. - Gaiser, T. - Palouso, T. - Tao, F. - Nendel, C. - Roggero, P. P. - Bartošová, Lenka - Asseng, S.
Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change.
Environmental Modelling & Software. Roč. 72, oct (2015), s. 287-303. ISSN 1364-8152. E-ISSN 1873-6726
R&D Projects: GA MZe QJ1310123; GA MŠMT(CZ) EE2.3.20.0248
Institutional support: RVO:67179843
Keywords : uncertainty * scaling * integrated assessment * risk assessment * adaptation * crop models
Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology
Impact factor: 4.207, year: 2015

The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess climate change risks to food production and to which extent crop models comply with IAM demands. Considerable progress has been made in modelling effects of climate variables, where crop models best satisfy IAM demands. Demands are partly satisfied for simulating commonly required assessment variables. However, progress on the number of simulated crops, uncertainty propagation related to model parameters and structure, adaptations and scaling are less advanced and lagging behind IAM demands. The limitations are considered substantial and apply to a different extent to all crop models. Overcoming these limitations will require joint efforts, and consideration of novel modelling approaches. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0256470