Tailored vs Black-Box Models for Forecasting Hourly Average Solar Irradiance

0436527 - ÚI 2015 RIV US eng J - Journal Article
Brabec, Marek - Paulescu, M. - Badescu, V.
Tailored vs Black-Box Models for Forecasting Hourly Average Solar Irradiance.
Solar Energy. Roč. 111, January (2015), s. 320-331. ISSN 0038-092X. E-ISSN 1471-1257
R&D Projects: GA MŠMT LD12009
Grant - others:European Cooperation in Science and Technology(XE) COST ES1002
Institutional support: RVO:67985807
Keywords : solar irradiance * forecasting * tilored statistical models
Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research
Impact factor: 3.685, year: 2015

Accurate prediction of solar radiation is of high importance for proper operation of the electrical grid. Over short horizons, forecasting solar irradiance is often performed by extrapolation of field measurements. Four tailored statistical models for forecasting hourly average solar irradiance are proposed and assessed in this paper. These follow from the well-known regression and ARIMA class of models, but bring into the model formulation various physically motivated additional features. These capture the distribution of solar radiation more effectively. Their performance is compared with the performance of a standard model used in the strictly black-box style often encountered in practice. Overall results demonstrate that the proposed models are significantly more accurate than the standard model, under conditions of mostly cloudy skies.
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0240249