Modeling Haiti

0426532 - NHÚ 2014 RIV CZ eng V - Research Report
Auda, O. - Bečičková, H. - Cincibuch, M. - Čižmár, P. - Hřebíček, H. - Janjgava, Batlome - Kameník, O. - Katreniaková, D. - Kejak, Michal - Lamazoshvili, Beka - Lukáč, J. - Machala, J. - Menkyna, Robert - Musil, K. - Rasulova, Khanifakhon - Remo, A. - Vávra, D. - Vlček, J. - Zemčík, Petr
Modeling Haiti.
Prague: OGResearch, 2011. 125 s.
R&D Projects: GA MŠMT(CZ) LF11018
Institutional support: RVO:67985998
Keywords : Haiti * forecasting and policy analysis system
Subject RIV: AH - Economics

The report has four chapters. Chapter 2 summarizes the main features of the Haitian economy relevant for building the forecasting and policy analysis system (FPAS). Chapter 3 presents the structural macroeconomic model and its properties captured by the decompositions of variances of the model’s variables in terms of the model shocks and by its impulse-response functions. This chapter also describes Bayesian vector autoregressions used for the near-term forecasting. Chapter 4 evaluates how the models perform empirically. The forecasting power is assessed both in the sample and by using an out-of-the-sample comparison with the standard random-walk benchmark. We conclude that the FPAS performs satisfactorily in this comparison.
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0232255