Could the changes in regional crop yields be a pointer of climatic change?

0389967 - ÚVGZ 2013 RIV NL eng J - Journal Article
Trnka, Miroslav - Brázdil, Rudolf - Olesen, J. E. - Eitzinger, Josef - Zahradníček, Pavel - Kocmánková, Eva - Dobrovolný, Petr - Štěpánek, Petr - Možný, Martin - Bartošová, Lenka - Hlavinka, Petr - Semerádová, Daniela - Valášek, H. - Havlíček, M. - Horáková, V. - Fischer, Milan - Žalud, Zdeněk
Could the changes in regional crop yields be a pointer of climatic change?
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. Roč. 166, č. 4 (2012), s. 62-71. ISSN 0168-1923. E-ISSN 1873-2240
R&D Projects: GA MŠMT(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073; GA MŠMT(CZ) EE2.4.31.0056
Institutional support: RVO:67179843
Keywords : Wheat * Barley * Yield variability * Drought index * Temperature * Precipitation * Southern Moravia
Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour
Impact factor: 3.421, year: 2012

This study focuses on the changes in the yield stability of winter wheat and spring barley over the past 140 years and changes in the weather - yield relationships. The study area is located in the Czech Republic in eastern Central Europe and includes 4900 km2 of arable land within eight districts for which yield data were collected for the years 1869–1913 and 1961–2007. The yields for winter wheat and spring barley have increased by a factor of 2–3 since the late 19th century, whereas the temperature and precipitation patterns showed trends toward warmer and drier conditions. There was a considerable increase in the inter - annual variability of the absolute yields in the districts. When the variability was evaluated in relative terms (i.e., compared with the yield level), it showed no change or insignifcant increases in the warmest and driest regions. The study also found that the sensitivity to inter-seasonal temperature increase was much more pronounced during 1961–2007 than at the end of the 19th century and that an increase of the mean temperature by 1 degree Celsius led to yield decreases of up to 11 percent for winter wheat and up to 10 percent for spring barely. During the early period, drier conditions had very small negative or even slightly positive effects on yields, whereas at the end of the 20th century, the May and June drought became a factor that explained a considerable proportion of the yield variability. This was the case especially for spring barley, which is more vulnerable to droughts than is winter wheat. The negative effects of increasing temperature and drought on grain yield were most pronounced in the districts that are currently the warmest and driest.
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0218930