Probability estimates of extreme temperature events: stochastic modelling approach vs. extreme value distributions

0176397 - UFA-U 20020206 RIV CZ eng J - Journal Article
Kyselý, Jan
Probability estimates of extreme temperature events: stochastic modelling approach vs. extreme value distributions.
Studia geophysica et geodaetica. Roč. 46, - (2002), s. 93-112. ISSN 0039-3169. E-ISSN 1573-1626
R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/99/1561; GA AV ČR IAA3042903
Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3042911
Keywords : autoregressive model * extreme value distribution * L moments
Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology
Impact factor: 0.571, year: 2002

The paper deals with probability estimates of temperature extremes (annual temperature maxima and heat waves) in the Czech Republic. Two statistical methods of the probability estimations are compared; one based on the stochastic modelling of time series of daily maximum temperature (TMAX) using the first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) model, the other consisting in fitting extreme value distribution to the sample of annual temperature peaks. Application of the appropriate statistical tools indicates that the heat wave and particularly the long period of consecutive tropical days in 1994 were likely a more rare event than the record-breaking temperatures in July 1983 exceeding 40~C.
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0073373