Random point process models for score of sport match

0084002 - ÚTIA 2008 RIV GB eng C - Conference Paper (international conference)
Volf, Petr
Random point process models for score of sport match.
[Modely bodových procesů pro skore sportovního utkání.]
First International Conference on Mathematics in Sport Proceedings. Manchester: The Institute of Mathemaitcs and Its Applications, 2007 - (Percy, D.; Scarf, P.; Robinson, C.), s. 239-244
[First International Conference on Mathematics in Sport Proceedings. Manchester (GB), 24.06.2007-26.06.2007]
R&D Projects: GA MŠMT(CZ) 1M06047
Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506
Keywords : sport statistics * model of score * random point process
Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research

The sequence of goals scored during a sport match is modeled via two mutually dependent random point processes. It is assumed that the intensity of scoring has several components depending on time, on factors describing the teams and other conditions of the match. Some of these covariates can also behave as random process, developing in time, they can be observed or even latent. The survival analysis methods of model evaluation are presented and demonstrated on real data. Several variants of models are proposed and the prediction obtained from them, via the Monte Carlo simulation, is compared with real results.

Vývoj skore sportovního zápasu je modelován pomocí dvou náhodných bodových procesů s intenzitami skorování závislými na týmu i na dalších parametrech vývoje zápasu. Specifikace modelu, odhad jeho parametrů i jeho použití k Monte Carlo simulaci zápasů je ukázáno na reálné situaci.
Permanent Link: http://hdl.handle.net/11104/0147034