COVID-19 pandemic and global carbon dioxide emissions: A first assessment

Highlights

• COVID-19 enforced lockdown led to temporary reduction in anthropogenic CO₂ emission.

• Total CO₂ emission reduction of 1749Mt CO₂ (14% year-on-year decline) was estimated.

• Highest emissions reduction found to be caused by drop in surface and air traffic.

• Duration of lockdown and comparable measures directly affected GDP growth rates.

• Virtual infrastructure may serve as an opportunity for long-term decarbonization.

Abstract

Anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions are the main cause of global climate change. The COVID-19 pandemic has been one of the worst of its kind in the last century with regard to global deaths and, in the absence of any effective treatment, it led to governments worldwide mandating lock-down measures, as well as citizens voluntarily reducing non-essential trips and activities. In this study, the influence of decreased activity on CO₂ emissions and on the economy was assessed. The US, EU-28, China and India, representing almost 60% of anthropogenic carbon emissions, were considered as reference entities and the trends were extrapolated to estimate the global impact. This study aimed to deduce initial estimates of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions based on the available economic and industrial outputs and activity data, as they could not be directly measured. Sector-wise variations in emissions were modeled by assuming proportionality of the outputs/activities and the resulting emissions. A decline in road traffic was seen up to March 2020 and then a steady growth was observed, with the exception of China where road traffic started to recover by the end of January. The vast majority of passenger flights were grounded and, therefore, global air traffic plummeted by 43.7% from January to May 2020. A considerable drop in coal power production and the annual industrial growth rate was also observed. The overall economic decline led to a drop of 4.9% in annual global gross domestic product (GDP) for Q2 2020. The total global CO₂ emissions reduction for January through April 2020 compared to the year before was estimated to be 1749 Mt. CO₂ (14.3%) with a maximum contribution from the transportation sector (58.3% among total emissions by sector). Like other previous crises, if the economy rebounds as expected the reductions will be temporary. Long-term impacts can be minimized considering the business as well as lifestyle changes for travel, utilizing virtual structures created during this crisis, and switching to sustainable transportation.