Abstract
Anomalies in the Radon activity concentration time series recorded in five European caves (Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia) are detected using three hybrid methods: (1) multiple linear regression and autoregressive integrated moving average statistical methods, (2) Empirical Mode Decomposition with Support Vector Regression techniques and (3) the Singular Spectrum Analysis composed with a predicting methodology. Results coming from the three methods are compared and the best hybrid method is selected based on statistical evaluation criteria of the uncertainty. Radon anomalies occur ± 30 days from earthquake occurrence, selected according to the Dobrovolsky’s earthquake preparation zone formula and to seismic events (with magnitude ≥ 4) occurred in the neighboring European Countries to the monitoring caves. The anomalies detection furnishes results consistent across the used methodologies, as proven by the calculation of a statistical parameter that search the presence of anomalies coming from the hybrid methods within ± 30 days from earthquake event.
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Acknowledgements
The authors wish to thank the caves and nearby meteo-station Administration of the Czechia, Slovenia and Slovakia for their unselfish cooperation. This work was supported by the Long-term conceptual development research organization [RVO: 67985891]; and the CzechGeo-EPOS project ‘Distributed system of permanent observatory measurements and temporary monitoring of geophysical fields in the Czech Republic’ [MŠMT: LM2015079]; and the project ‘Centre of Advanced Applied Sciences’ [CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_0 19/0000778].
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Ambrosino, F., Thinová, L., Briestenský, M. et al. Detecting time series anomalies using hybrid methods applied to Radon signals recorded in caves for possible correlation with earthquakes. Acta Geod Geophys 55, 405–420 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40328-020-00298-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40328-020-00298-1