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A prediction of the beginning of the flowering of the common hazel in the Czech Republic

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Abstract

Timely information on the beginning of the flowering of important plant species of pollen allergens is consequential for the entire population due to pollen allergy and its extensive clinical impact worldwide. This paper examines the prediction of the beginning of the flowering of the common hazel (Corylus avellana) based on the PhenoClim phenological model using long-term phenological observations (1991–2020) in the Czech Republic. Furthermore, temporal and spatial evaluations of the beginning of the flowering of C. avellana were examined in different climate zones in the Czech Republic within the same period. In total, 40 phenological stations at altitudes from 155 to 743 m asl located in warm, medium warm, and cold climate zones were evaluated using the Mann–Kendall test. The beginning of the flowering of C. avellana changed progressively in timing, and the difference in the rate of shifts was between −33 and + 15 days per the entire period. An extreme shift to an earlier date was detected at stations located in a warm region (W2). In contrast, the highest shift to a later date was found at stations located in the cold climate regions (C4, C6, C7). Using the PhenoClim, the base temperature and temperature sums were calculated for the beginning of the flowering of the common hazel. As the most accurate predictor for this phenological phase and species, the maximum air temperature was determined as the best predictor based on the combination of RMSE and R2 values. The optimal start day for calculation was January 1st; the threshold (base temperature) was 2.7 °C with a temperature sum of 155.7 °C. The RMSE value was 5.46, and the MBE value was −0.93. The simulated data showed an excellent correlation with the observed data—the correlation coefficient was 0.932. The PhenoClim model results can be used in the forecast modelling of the beginning of the flowering of the common hazel in the Czech Republic.

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Acknowledgements

This study was supported by the project SustES – Adaptation Strategies for the Sustainability of Ecosystem Services and Food Security in Adverse Natural Conditions (CZ.02.1.01 / 0.0 / 0.0 / 16 019 / 0000797) and by the project No. SS02030018 (DivLand) and project No. SS02030040 (PERUN).

Funding

This study was funded by Ministerstvo Školství, Mládeže a Tělovýchovy, project SustES—Adaptation Strategies for the Sustainability of Ecosystem Services and, Food Security in Adverse Natural Conditions (CZ.02.1.01 / 0.0 / 0.0 / 16 019 / 0000797, Zdeněk Žalud, and by Technologická Agentura České Republiky, Project No. SS02030018 (DivLand), Martin Možný and Project No. SS02030040 (PERUN), Martin Možný.

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  1. Department of Biometeorological Applications, Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Na Šabatce 17, Prague, Czech Republic

    Lenka Hájková & Martin Možný

  2. Faculty of AgriSciences, Department of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University in Brno, Zemědělská 1, Brno, Czech Republic

    Lenka Bartošová, Petra Dížková & Zdeněk Žalud

  3. Global Change Research Institute CAS, Bělidla 986/4a, Brno, Czech Republic

    Lenka Bartošová, Petra Dížková & Zdeněk Žalud

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  1. Lenka Hájková
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Correspondence to Lenka Hájková.

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Hájková, L., Možný, M., Bartošová, L. et al. A prediction of the beginning of the flowering of the common hazel in the Czech Republic. Aerobiologia 39, 21–35 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10453-022-09770-7

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