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Multi-GCM projections of future drought and climate variability indicators for the Mediterranean region

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Abstract

Future climate conditions for the Mediterranean region based on an ensemble of 16 Global Climate Models are expressed and mapped using three approaches, giving special attention to the intermodel uncertainty. (1) The scenarios of mean seasonal temperature and precipitation agree with the projections published previously by other authors. The results show an increase in temperature in all seasons and for all parts of the Mediterranean with good intermodel agreement. Precipitation is projected to decrease in all parts and all seasons (most significantly in summer) except for the northernmost parts in winter. The intermodel agreement for the precipitation changes is lower than for temperature. (2) Changes in drought conditions are represented using the Palmer Drought Severity Index and its intermediate Z-index product. The results indicate a significant decrease in soil moisture in all seasons, with the most significant decrease occurring in summer. The displayed changes exhibit high intermodel agreement. (3) The climate change scenarios are defined in terms of the changes in parameters of the stochastic daily weather generator calibrated with the modeled daily data; the emphasis is put on the parameters, which affect the diurnal and interdiurnal variability in weather series. These scenarios indicate a trend toward more extreme weather in the Mediterranean. Temperature maxima will increase not only because of an overall rise in temperature means, but partly (in some areas) because of increases in temperature variability and daily temperature range. Increased mean daily precipitation sums on wet days occurring in some seasons, and some parts of the Mediterranean may imply higher daily precipitation extremes, and decreased probability of wet day occurrence will imply longer drought spells all across the Mediterranean.

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Acknowledgments

The paper brings together outputs of the PRASCE project (project IAA300420806 funded by the Grant Agency of Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic), WG4VALUE project (Project LD12029 funded by Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports) and the National Research Council (Italy)—Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic bilateral project. The drought index simulations were co-funded by CLIMSAVE 7FP EU project (no. 244031) and the OPVK Project “Building up a multidiciplinary scientific team focused on drought” (No. CZ.1.07/2.3.00/20.0248). Trnka’s work was supported by project “Partnership in Climate Research and Adaptation Strategies” (No. CZ.1.07/2.4.00/31.0056) and most recently by Czech-AGRIWAT Project No. LD 13030 funded by Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports. The authors acknowledge the free access to IPCC and WCRP databases derived from the GCM outputs. Last but not least, the authors appreciate comments from two anonymous reviewers who significantly contributed to the final shape of this paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, ASCR, 14131, Prague, Czech Republic

    Martin Dubrovský

  2. National Drought Mitigation Center, School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, 68583-0988, USA

    Michael Hayes & Mark Svoboda

  3. Institute of Biometeorology, National Research Council, 07100, Sassari, Italy

    Pierpaolo Duce & Pierpaolo Zara

  4. Institute for Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University, 61300, Brno, Czech Republic

    Miroslav Trnka

  5. CzechGlobe-Global Change Research Centre, ASCR, 60300, Brno, Czech Republic

    Martin Dubrovský & Miroslav Trnka

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  1. Martin Dubrovský
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Correspondence to Martin Dubrovský.

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Dubrovský, M., Hayes, M., Duce, P. et al. Multi-GCM projections of future drought and climate variability indicators for the Mediterranean region. Reg Environ Change 14, 1907–1919 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0562-z

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