Scale-specific phase synchronization between solar/geomagnetic activity and climate variability (Invited)
Abstract
Detection and extraction of quasi-oscillatory dynamical modes from instrumental records of meteorological variables, climatological proxies and proxies of solar activity, or other geophysical data became a useful tool in analysing variability of observed phenomena reflected in complex, multivariate geophysical signals. Recent development in nonlinear dynamics, namely in chaotic synchronization brought a possibility of novel ways to study relations between such modes representing a part of atmospheric variability and possible external influences. Palus & Novotna (Nonlin. Proc. Geophys. 13, 2006, 287-296) proposed the enhanced Monte Carlo Singular System Analysis (MC SSA) in which, in addition to the signal covariance structure, regularity and predictability of the SSA modes is quantified and tested. Applying MC SSA on monthly time series of sunspot numbers, geomagnetic activity aa index, NAO index and near-surface air temperature from several mid-latitude European stations they detected a number of oscillatory modes, some of them with common periods (J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys. 69, 2007, 2405-2415). Instantaneous phases of the detected modes underwent synchronization analysis. In the case of the modes with period 7-8y statistically significant phase coherence, beginning from 1950's, has been observed. Thus Palus & Novotna (J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys. 71, 923--930, 2009) were able to present the statistical evidence for a coupling between solar/geomagnetic activity and climate variability, obtained from continuous monthly data, independent of the season, however, confined to the temporal scale related to oscillatory periods about 7-8 years. This study is supported by the GA AS CR project No. IAA300420805.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2009
- Bibcode:
- 2009AGUFMNG43C..06P
- Keywords:
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- 1616 GLOBAL CHANGE / Climate variability;
- 1650 GLOBAL CHANGE / Solar variability;
- 3305 ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES / Climate change and variability;
- 4494 NONLINEAR GEOPHYSICS / Instruments and techniques