Počet záznamů: 1
Boom and bust: Simulating the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of a global invader near the edge of its native range
- 1.
SYSNO ASEP 0583539 Druh ASEP J - Článek v odborném periodiku Zařazení RIV J - Článek v odborném periodiku Poddruh J Článek ve WOS Název Boom and bust: Simulating the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of a global invader near the edge of its native range Tvůrce(i) Souza, Allan T. (BC-A) RID, ORCID
Ilarri, M. (PT)
Campos, J. (PT)
Ribas, F. O. (PT)
Marques, J. C. (PT)
Martins, I. (PT)Celkový počet autorů 6 Číslo článku 158294 Zdroj.dok. Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier - ISSN 0048-9697
Roč. 851, Aug (2022)Poč.str. 15 s. Jazyk dok. eng - angličtina Země vyd. NL - Nizozemsko Klíč. slova crab carcinus-maenas ; european green crab ; shore crab ; minho estuary ; temperature-change ; larval development ; portunidae larvae ; behavior ; Estuarine population model ; Carcinus maenas ; Global warming ; Drought ; Coastal ecosystem Vědní obor RIV EH - Ekologie - společenstva Obor OECD Ecology Způsob publikování Omezený přístup Institucionální podpora BC-A - RVO:60077344 UT WOS 000863090700004 EID SCOPUS 85137029522 DOI 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158294 Anotace Despite the increasing awareness of climate change, few studies have used the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios to simulate the effects of climate change on estuarine populations of crustaceans. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of temperature and salinity fluctuations on the population dynamics of the shore crab Carcinus maenas at the southern edge of its native range. To this end, a population dynamics model was developed based on experimental and literature data on the biology, ecology and physiology of the species. Results showed that the shore crab will be more affected by changes in temperature than in salinity. The parameter sensitivity analysis revealed that the larval phase of the species is the most sensitive stage of the shore crab life cycle. Three IPCC scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-8.5) were used to simulate the effects of temperature increase on the population of C. maenas in the near- (2040), mid- (2060), and long-term (2100). Two scenarios of drought conditions accompanied by the estimated salinity change were also simulated (10 % and 40 % drought). Results suggested that slight increases in temperature (up to 2 degrees C) lead to a strong increase on the density of C. maenas in the mid-term, while further temperature increases lead to a decline or local extinction of the shore crab population at the southern edge of its distribution range. Results indicated that a salinity increase in the estuary had a negative effect on the shore crab population. Given the importance of the species to temperate coastal ecosystems, both population increase and local extinction are likely to have significant impacts on estuarine communities and food webs, with unknown ecological and socioeconomic consequences. Pracoviště Biologické centrum (od r. 2006) Kontakt Dana Hypšová, eje@eje.cz, Tel.: 387 775 214 Rok sběru 2024 Elektronická adresa https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158294
Počet záznamů: 1